The Amazon Basin is responsible for around 15% of all fresh water discharged into the oceans and 13% of the planet’s biodiversity. But the rivers in the world’s largest tropical rainforest are drying up. Their waters have dropped to record lows this year, in a drought that could surpass the critical levels registered in 2023; the Negro River, for example, reached its lowest mark since 1902, the year measurements began. This is all happening, scientists warn, at a point when the biome has lost 18% of its forest cover, reducing its capacity to absorb and store carbon; the Amazon is now approaching the point of no return, while global temperatures are set to break the annual heat record for the second consecutive year.

“Severe droughts in the Amazon have increased in frequency and intensity, from four in a century to four in less than 25 years, in conjunction with escalating deforestation and global heating,” warns the Science Panel for the Amazon in a document published this year.

Brazil’s National Water and Sanitation Agency declared the water resource situation critical on the Xingu, Iriri, Madeira, Purus, Acre, Paraguay, and Tapajós rivers, warning these low levels may last through November 30. In early October, Environment and Climate Change Minister Marina Silva said 58% of Brazil’s territory has been affected by the worst drought of the last 75 years.

The destruction of fauna and flora and the social and economic impacts on the lives of local residents, especially Indigenous people and members of traditional forest communities known as Ribeirinhos, are on a scale that has not yet been properly quantified in Brazil. The Science Panel for the Amazon estimates that by 2050, the largest countries that are home to portions of the Amazon Basin (Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Bolivia, and Ecuador) will lose around $45 billion in Gross Domestic Product as the frequency and intensity of droughts increase, leading to crop losses and constant forest fires.